Category Archives: Međunarodna bezbednost

Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Implications and Challenges
Dr. Miad Nakhavali
Founder of Middle East Analitika
The Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, comprising a preamble and 47 articles, was officially concluded in Moscow on January 17, 2025—just three days before the inauguration of Donald Trump, a U.S. president known for his firm stance against the Islamic Republic. The timing of the agreement sends a clear and deliberate message to both Washington and its allies, particularly Israel.
While this is not a formal military alliance between Iran and Russia, the agreement places significant emphasis on military and nuclear cooperation, as well as joint deterrence strategies. One of its key provisions ensures that neither party allows its territory to be used by an aggressor to launch attacks against the other. However, it is important to note that, unlike Russia’s agreement with North Korea—where Moscow is obligated to defend Pyongyang unconditionally in the event of war—this partnership with Iran does not include such a binding defense commitment.
Military and Nuclear Cooperation
A major aspect of the agreement is the expansion of military collaboration across multiple levels. This includes organizing workshops, working groups, and other joint activities aimed at deepening defense ties. Furthermore, both parties committed to close cooperation in arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation within the framework of relevant international treaties. However, the agreement simultaneously underscores a significant escalation in nuclear cooperation, with plans for the joint construction of additional nuclear facilities.
Iran has already played a pivotal role in supplying Russia with Shahed-series drones during the war in Ukraine and has reportedly transferred the necessary technology to allow domestic production on Russian soil. In return, discussions are reportedly underway regarding Russia’s potential provision of advanced fighter aircraft to Iran, including long-range models such as the Su-35 Super Flanker. Additionally, there is speculation about a joint production program, possibly involving air defense interceptors such as the S-400 system. In the long term, such developments would considerably bolster Iran’s defensive capabilities against potential military actions from NATO, the United States, or Israel. This, in turn, could reduce Iran’s perceived need to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
Political Significance and Strategic Timing
An analysis of Iranian state media indicates that Tehran’s urgency in finalizing the agreement before Trump’s return to office carries significant political weight. The Iranian leadership appears to have sought to preemptively secure stronger ties with Moscow before the U.S. could reintroduce a more aggressive Iran policy. Simultaneously, Iran has been conducting a series of military exercises, particularly air defense drills, signaling its readiness for potential confrontations.
Tensions between Iran and Israel remain high, with Tel Aviv repeatedly asserting that it will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. The timing of this agreement suggests that Tehran aimed to reinforce its strategic posture ahead of any potential escalation under the Trump administration.
Intelligence and Propaganda Coordination
Beyond military cooperation, the agreement outlines plans for intelligence-sharing between Iran and Russia. Additionally, both countries have committed to counteracting what they perceive as Western propaganda within their territories. This suggests that Tehran and Moscow may coordinate efforts to curb Western influence, restrict opposition media, and implement stricter controls on information flow. Such measures could further accelerate their shift toward authoritarian governance, raising concerns over increasing domestic repression and declining political freedoms.
Financial and Economic Implications
Another key component of the agreement is the plan to establish an independent financial and payment system that bypasses the U.S. dollar and the global banking networks controlled by the United States and the European Union. If successful, this initiative could significantly weaken the effectiveness of Western economic sanctions. A broader trend toward de-dollarization could undermine one of the most powerful tools that Washington and Brussels have traditionally used to counter hostile regimes. However, this move also carries risks—it could provoke harsher responses from the U.S. and its allies, potentially increasing the likelihood of direct military confrontation.
Obstacles and Unresolved Disputes
Despite their deepening cooperation, Iran and Russia still face notable disagreements. One major point of contention is the South Caucasus, particularly the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow supports Baku’s push for the Zangezur Corridor—a project that would effectively cut off Iran’s land connection to Armenia and alter Tehran’s regional access. Iran strongly opposes this initiative, seeing it as a threat to its geopolitical position.
Additionally, tensions persist over the Caspian Sea, where Iran has long expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s approach to resource distribution. While the agreement emphasizes mutual respect for the equitable use of Caspian resources, Tehran remains wary of Moscow’s dominance in the region.
Conclusion
Despite the existing disagreements between Tehran and Moscow, both regimes appear to be prioritizing their shared objective of countering U.S. influence over their unresolved bilateral disputes. This agreement marks a significant step toward a deeper strategic partnership, one that could shape a long-term alignment aimed at challenging Western dominance in global affairs. However, the ultimate effectiveness of this alliance remains uncertain. It is yet to be seen whether the partnership will serve as a strong enough deterrent to prevent potential military actions by the United States, NATO, or Israel against Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear program.
At the same time, questions persist regarding Russia’s broader strategic calculations. Moscow may seek to leverage its deepening ties with Tehran as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the West over the Ukraine conflict. The extent to which this partnership enhances Russia’s negotiating position—or, conversely, further alienates it from Western powers—remains an open question.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the geopolitical landscape surrounding Iran and Russia is poised to become even more unpredictable. His previous tenure demonstrated an inclination toward abrupt policy shifts, aggressive sanctions, and unconventional diplomatic strategies. Whether Trump will escalate pressure on Iran and Russia or seek a more transactional approach to global diplomacy remains to be seen. Regardless, the evolving dynamics of this partnership are likely to play a critical role in shaping regional and international security in the years to come.

ODRŽANO PREDAVANJE O REŽIMU NEPROLIFERACIJE
U okviru programa Pete generacije stažista SUSB 3.12.2024. godine održano je predavanje Dr. Leonarda Bandarre, istraživača postdoktorskih studija Univerziteta Duisburg-Esen.
Dr. Bandarra je učesnicima skupa predstavio institucionalnu strukturu režima neproliferacije, posledice upotrebe nuklearnog oružja, teorijske aspekte izučavanja pitanja neproliferacije i istraživački dizajn i rezultate istraživanja predstavljene u njegovoj monografiji “Nuclear Latency and the Participation Puzzle: Constructing the International Non-proliferation Regime”.


REALIZOVANO PREDAVANJE O NUKLEARNOJ ENERGIJI I BOMBI U OKVIRU PETE GENERACIJE STAŽIRANJA
U ponedeljak, 18. novembra 2024. godine održano je drugo po redu predavanje koje se održava u okviru Pete generacije stažiranja u SUSB.
Predavanje o nuklearnoj energiji i nuklearnoj bombi održao je nuklearni fizičar Slobodan Bubnjević.
On je prisutnima predočio funkcionisanje fisije, lančane reakcije, nuklearne eksplozije i zastrašujuće posledice prvih upotreba nuklearnog oružja, kao i principe delovanja civilne nuklearne energije.

DR. MARINA KOSTIĆ ŠULEJIĆ UČESTVOVALA NA GODIŠNJOJ KONFERENCIJI KONZORCIJUMA EU ZA NEPROLIFERACIJU I RAZORUŽANJE 2024
Dr. Marina Kostić Šulejić, generalni sekretar i rukovodilac Centra za neproliferaciju, kontrolu naoružanja i razoružanje SUSB, učestvovala je od 12. do 14. novembra 2024. godine na redovnoj Godišnjoj konferenciji Konzorcijuma Evropske unije za neproliferaciju i razoružanje u Briselu.
Konferencija je okupila veliki broj diplomata i predstavnika akademskih i istraživačkih institucija. Teme ovogodišnje konferencije odnosile su se na multilateralnu kontrolu naoružanja u doba geopolitičkih tenzija, razoružanje hemijskog oružja i pojavu novih pretnji upotrebom ove vrsta oružja za masovno uništenje, budućnost biološkog naoružanja, agendu neproliferacije i razoružanja u Aziji i rizike proliferacije na Bliskom istoku, trku u naoružanju u spoljnom svemiru, izazove konvencionalnoj kontroli naoružanja, nove tehnilogije, rat u Ukrajjini i kontrolu naoružanja i put ka Preglednoj konferenciji NPT koja će se održati 2026. godine.
Strukovno udruženje sektora bezbednosti i njegov Centar za NKNiR će nastaviti aktivan angažman na edukaciji i razvoju kadrova koji se bave pitanjima neproliferacije, kontrole naoružanja i razoružanjem u Srbiji i našem regionu.
Dr. Marina Kostić Šulejić
Secretary General and Head of the Research Program

ODRŽANO PREDAVANJE O NEMAČKOJ SPOLJNOJ I BEZBEDNOSNOJ POLITICI
U ponedeljak 11.12.2023. godine, održano je predavanje o nemačkoj spoljnoj i bezbednosnoj politici.
Naši predavači su ovog puta bili uvaženi dr Ognjen Pribićević, naučni savetnik Instituta društvenih nauka i nekadašnji ambasador Republike Srbije u SR Nemačkoj i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, i dr Vladimir Filipović, sekretar Odbora za spoljne poslove Narodne skupštine Republike Srbije.
Dr Pribićević se prisutnim studentima i profesorima obratio na temu unutrašnjih determinanti nemačke spoljne i bezbednosne politike, značaja njenog istorijskog iskustva i članstva u EU i NATO, političke situacije, ali i podelio iskustva u radu na mestu ambasadora u ovoj zemlji. Odgovarajući na pitanja studenata on je posebno naglasio ulogu ekonomije u savremenoj diplomatiji i naznačio glavne pravce promene u diplomatiji u odnosu na period hladnog rata.
Dr Filipović je govorio o spoljnim determinantama nemačke spoljne i bezbednosne politike, njenom odnosu prema EU, NATO i Kini, kao i ukrajinskom sukobu i posledicama po energetsku i ekonomsku stabilnost Nemačke. Takođe, osvrnuo se na pitanje poželjnosti liderstva Nemačke i značaja koje to može imati po evropske odnose.
Moderator skupa bila je dr Marina Kostić Šulejić, generalni sektretar Strukovnog udruženja sektora bezbednosti i rukovodilac Programa stažiranja.

DR. MARINA KOSTIĆ ŠULEJIĆ PARTICIPATED IN THE EUROPEAN UNION NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT CONSORTIUM ANNUAL CONFERENCE
Dr. Marina Kostić Šulejić, Secretary General and Head of the Center for Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament of the Professional Association of Security Sector, participated in the European Union Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium Annual Conference, which took place on December 4 and 5, 2023 in Brussels.
The conference brings together the most prominent representatives of research centers (think-tank organizations, scientific and academic institutions) that are part of the Consortium’s Network from EU member states, Serbia and Ukraine, and that deal with issues of non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament.
This year, the participants discussed the EU non-proliferation and disarmament agenda, as well as the most pressing issues in this area: proliferation and disarmament in relation to nuclear, but also chemical and biological weapons, prospects for cooperation or conflict in outer space, artificial intelligence and the future of warfare, the diversity of conventional weapons, conflict dynamics and security cooperation in East Asia, the war in Ukraine and the future of arms control in Europe as well as arms control in the context of global powers dynamics.
Conference was also attended by the Marjolijn van Deelen, Special Envoy for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, European External Actions Service (EEAS), and numerous other official representatives from the United Nations and other international organizations and bodies dealing with the non-proliferation and disarmament.

DR MARINA KOSTIĆ ŠULEJIĆ UČESTVOVALA NA GODIŠNjOJ KONFERENCIJI KONZORCIJUMA EVROPSKE UNIJE ZA NEPROLIFERACIJU I RAZORUŽANjE
Dr Marina Kostić Šulejić, generalni sekretar i rukovodilac Centra za neproliferaciju, kontrolu naoružanja i razoružanje Strukovnog udruženja sektora bezbednosti, učestvovala je na Godišnjoj konferenciji Konzorcijuma Evropske unije za neproliferaciju i razoružanje koja se 4. i 5. decembra 2023. godine održala u Briselu.
Konferencija okuplja najistaknutije predstavnike istraživačkih centara (think-tank organizacija, naučnih i akademskih institucija) koji su deo Mreže Konzorcijuma iz zemalja članica EU, Srbije i Ukrajine, a koji se bave pitanjima neproliferacije, kontrole naoružanja i razoružanja.
Ove godine diskutovalo se na temu agende EU iz oblasti neproliferacije i razoružanja, kao i o najaktuelnijim pitanjima iz ove oblasti: proliferaciji i razoružanju u odnosu na nuklearno oružje, ali i hemijsko i biloško, prospektima za saradnju ili konflikt u spoljnom svemiru, veštačkoj inteligenciji i budućnosti ratovanja, raznolikosti konvencionalnog naoružanja, konfliktnoj dinamici i bezbednosnoj saradnji u Istočnoj Aziji, ratu u Ukrajini i budućnosti kontrole naoružanja u Evropi i kontroli naoružanja u kontekstu velikih sila.
Konferenciji je oba dana prisustvovala i specijalni izaslanik EU za neproliferaciju i razoružanje iz Evropske službe za spoljno delovanje Mardžolin van Dilen, kao i brojni drugi zvaničnici Ujedinjenih nacija i drugih međunarodnih organizacija i tela koji se bave pitanjima neproliferacije i razoružanja.

DR MARINA KOSTIĆ ŠULEJIĆ UČESTVOVALA NA SIMPOZIJUMU O KONTROLI NAORUŽANjA U ORGANIZACIJI RACVIAC
Dr Marina Kostić Šulejić, generalni sekretar u rukovodilac Centra za neproliferaciju, kontrolu naoružanja i razoružanje SUSB, učestvovala je u svojstvu govornika na Simpozijumu o kontroli naoružanja koji se svake godine održava u RACVIAC – Centru za bezbednosnu saradnju sa sedištem u Hrvatskoj.
Simpozijum okuplja istaknute eksperte iz oblasti kontrole naoružanja, a ove godine svoja izlaganja imali su eksperti i rukovodioci celina koje se bave multilateralom i kontrolom naoružanja iz Italije, Mađarske, Francuske, Holandije, Crne Gore, Češke, SAD, kao i OEBS. Učesnici Simpozijuma bili su predstavnici ministarstava spoljnih poslova i ministarstava odbrane država članica i posmatrača RACVIAC.
Marina je govorila na temu „Novi izazovi, nove mere: razmišljanja o budućoj kontroli naoružanja na Zapadnom Balkanu i u Evropi”. Ona je istakla prirodu izazova koje nove i ometajuće tehnologije predstavljaju za podregionalni sistem kontrole naoružanja i predstavila moguće mere kako bi podregionalni sistem kontrole naoružanja nastavio da doprinosi stabilnosti u regionu.
Takođe, Marina je govorila o opštoj krizi kontrole naoružanja u Evropi i predočila mogućnost stvaranja evropskog sveobuhvatnog sporazuma o kontroli naoružanja i otvaranja Razgovora o nuklearnim i konvencionalnim snagama u Evropi.

DR MARINA KOSTIĆ ŠULEJIĆ PARTICIPATED IN THE RACVIAC ARMS CONTROL SYMPOSIUM
Dr. Marina Kostić Šulejić, Secretary General and Head of the Centre for Non-proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament of the PASS, participated as a speaker at the Arms Control Symposium, which is held every year at RACVIAC – Center for Security Cooperation.
The symposium brings together prominent experts in the field of arms control, and this year, experts and heads of units dealing with multilateralism and arms control from Italy, Hungary, France, the Netherlands, Montenegro, the Czech Republic, the USA, and the OSCE gave their presentations. The participants of the Symposium were also representatives of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and the Ministries of Defense of the member and observers states of RACVIAC.
Marina spoke on the topic “New Challenges, New Measures: Contemplating the Future Arms Control in the Western Balkans and Europe”. She highlighted the nature of the challenges that emerging and disruptive technologies pose to the sub-regional arms control regime and presented possible measures for the sub-regional arms control system to continue to contribute to stability in the region.
Also, Marina spoke about the general crisis of arms control in Europe and presented the possibility of creating a comprehensive arms control agreement for Europe and opening of the Nuclear and Conventional Weapons Talks that would comprise all relevant stakeholders for maintenance of security in Europe.

ODRŽAN PRVI SKUP U OKVIRU ČETVRTE GENERACIJE STAŽIRANJA SUSB
U petak 10. novembra 2023. godine održan je prvi u okviru niza skupova koji će se održati u okviru četvrte generacije stažiranja SUSB.
Skup je održan na Fakultetu za diplomatiju i bezbednost pod nazivom „Koliko daleko je mir?
Prospekti za mirovna rešenja u Ukrajini i na Bliskom istoku“, a povodom 11. novembra, Dana primirja u Prvom svetskom ratu.
Na skupu su govorili dr Vladimir Trapara i dr Slobodan Janković sa Instituta za međunarodnu politiku i privredu.
Polaznici četvrte generacije stažista SUSB su studenti master i osnovnih studija: Fakulteta političkih nauka, Fakulteta za diplomatiju i bezbednost i Fakuleta bezbednosti.